大牛正式登场了
Feb 14th, 2007 | By klse.8k | Category: 8K 股票市场今天（14/2/2007），60天的平均成交量终于突破了20亿令吉的大关，期待已久的大牛终于出现了。
接下来就是大家关心的问题：沸点在哪里？
沸点只会在大牛阶段出现，至于它几时会出现，却没有人可以预先知道。
没有人可以预知未来，但是，每个人都可以知道过去。
只希望我能够在沸点出现后的三个月内发觉到它的过去。
沸点过后的三个月才离场，会不会太迟呢？
但是，有谁能够在沸点出现前就离场呢？
在场外看着大牛飞奔，那种煎熬是贪婪的人所不能忍受的。
懂得玩股票的人，有谁不是贪婪的呢？
所以，我只好选择沸点过后才离场。
today the trading value exceed 4B. Far mor than the 2B. There are a number of reason why it growth 100%. Could be due to currency and depreciation. If each yr our currency depreciate by 10%, 10 yrs from 1997, 4B is fair. Tomorrow will be the last trading day before CNY holiday. Very likely it might surpass that 5B trading value.
Hello master klse.8k,
Thank you for sharing your experience about the boiling point of bull market. I’ve been very anxious recently in view of the high volume/ value until I recently found out the method william o’neil used to detect when the market has top.
He uses the number of days where the “index drop with high volume” as indicator. As you can see, in Dec 06, there are three trading days fulfill the criteria above. That is 12, 18 and 19 Dec.That should be the time I should be fearful.It is follwed by what O’neil called the follow through day, where the index hike with high volume on 12/1/07. This is his buy in point. In another word the previous sell pressure has resolved, as evidenced by the subsequent rise of CI.
After that, only 9/2/07 shows the same sign. So I believe the boiling point still far ahead…but we can foresee it if the selling signs repeat with no consolidation.
I hope this may give you another alternative to predict market top. Thank you for all the sharing again.
joel,
trading value of 4 billion (40亿) is very high indeed and 5 billion (50亿) of trading value is extremely high.
Just half year ago, the trading value is only around 1 billion or less than that. So you can imagine, 4 billion is very high already.
Wish you a happy chinese new year, and hope the bull continue to run after chinese new year.
Thank you.
Thank you sogrlcc for sharing the William O’neal method with us.
I will try to translate it into chinese for other people who can hardly understand english.
William O’neal 寻找沸点的方法
他应用“高成交量但指数下跌”的一天来计算沸点是否已经出现。
如，12Dec，18Dec，19Dec，当天的指数下跌而且成交量很大，这个时候我们就得特别小心，可能沸点已经过去了。
但是，如果接下来的几天，指数突破新高点，而且成交量很高，那么之前的买压就没有了，牛市还在，沸点还没有出现。
但是，当“高成交量但指数下跌”的那一天过后，我们需要等几久，才可以知道真正的沸点已经过了呢？
是不是好像KLSE.8K所说的，要等3个月后才可以下定论呢？
谢谢。
hmm.. today hit 4b value again with 4.6b volume. What does the market trying to tell us?
This mean the market is very hot now. But no one can predict how long the hot market can continue …
All we can do now is … wait and hold on your stock …
The big bull only come once a few years, so we must fully utilize the power of bull, to maximize our profits.
Thank you.
After the 22nd, the market seems starting correction. i consider this is because of T+3. Hope tomorrow or two more days can cover up all the selling force. Do you think it is possible or like what they said, it will try to adjust to 1250 ? just like you said, we try to fully utilize the power of bull. But, sometime we scared we get caught again. The 1997 burn up a lots and still not cover back.
Thank you.
No matter what are the reasons behind the correction, the correction is happening now.
If this is a big bull, it should not end at here. I believe it will come back stronger after the correction.
In my office, no one is talking about stocks. During lunch time the topic is never about stocks.
Although the market is hot with 4 Billions turnover value last week, the people around us, they are still not getting “hot” with stock market.
So I believe this bull has yet to reach to the peak.
They are right, the composite index is now adjusted to lower than 1250 level.
So, what is your advise to us all ? shall we wait ? The remiser said HK drop 400, it might affect out market also. what you think ? lost already.
thanks.
The market is unpredictable, and it is too early to say the bull is dead.
I will hold my stocks and wait … and wait …
ok. thanks. i think i know what to do. i trust what you said and that is why i need your comment. thanks again.
will mail you when the market up again !
No problem.
In the stock market, you should trust yourself more than anyone else.
Good luck and hope to get your mail soon. haha.
Sorry for confused you. What i mean trust is – all your theories (Low PE, High ROE, high DY…. ) and not what you ‘talk’ to us. I like to take your ‘talk’ as reference and then monitor my stocks. You got all real experience and studies which we don’t have. Thus, what you said still important to us even though i always trust myself more than anyone. can ? (hope you don’t mind i use the word ‘talk’ because “jin 1 liang yean” ma !)
I knew this web thru my husband and it takes about one month time to finish it. That time market is about 800 -900. So, i did bought some good and cheap counters as you teached. (again i want to say thanks to you.) Only recently, i start some speculative counter and get panic when market drop. Anyway, I hope i can see my portfolio with good profit when i sold out all my counters. Just like you said ” 1 fant , 2 fant.” haha. see you !
Once again, oo is the webmaster of this website only.
I am glad that you learn from KLSE.8K posts, and then try to search for your own experience in the stock market, and that is very good for you.
This is the purpose of this website, to open up the financial freedom route through stock market to people out there. I believe KLSE.8K will be very happy when he knows that there are people out there who really benefit from his articles.
Thank you for your sharing.