出自 - 冷眼分享集
美国次级房贷，引爆全球股灾，大马股市亦被波及，牛市突告中断，凡是拥有股票的，没一个能逃过此劫。
经过这一轮的蹂躏后，受伤的公牛，还能重振雄风吗？评论家人言言殊，莫衷一是，股票投资者无所适从。
我没有预测股市动向的能耐，我也不认为世界上有任何人拥有这种本领。
两项准则减困惑
既然无法准确预测股市动向，那么，我们又怎样投资股票呢？
我的方法是：
第一、根据大局；
第二、根据基本面；
以这两项为准则，作出投资的决定，可以减少困惑。
我必须强调，投资者如武林高手，有的用刀，有的用剑，有的用棍，只要练到炉火纯青，都能成为高手，开山立派。
投资方法，五花八门，只要应用得法，都可以赚钱，股市高手，各擅胜场，无所谓优劣，只有精与不精之别，如此而已。
所以，我所用的这种专注基本面的方法，也只是其中之一，对我管用，所以愿与大家分享。
对我来说，这次股灾，为长期投资者提供一个选择买进好股的机会。
乘大调整择肥而噬
那些在牛市窜升中，失去低价买进好股的机会的股友，不妨乘此次的大调整，择肥而噬。
我很用心的阅读可以找到的，关於次级房贷的资料、分析和评论。我所得到的结论是：这项风暴虽然够迅猛，但不足以动摇世界经济根基。
世界总体经济，有如一座大厦，若大厦的主柱被击断，大厦本身的重量向下压，大厦就会倒塌。
主要的柱子被摧毁，我们称之为“结构性的破坏”，惟有出现结构性的破坏，世界经济这座大厦才会崩溃。
如果只是窗户的玻璃被击破，虽然碎片纷飞，令人看了惊心动魄，但大厦仍屹立如山，绝对不会倒塌。
我认为次级房贷只击中世界经济大厦的玻璃窗，没击中主柱，所以，不足以动摇世界经济的根基。
经济学家所描绘的，是最坏的情况，不大可能出现。
只要消防员在，火势就不会失控。
现在全球领袖都出手挽救，次级房贷不可能溃变到无法控制的地步。
给予一些时间，风暴必然平息。
世界没有永不停息的风暴！
再看我们的股市。
经过这一轮大调整之后，一些素质优良的股票，已回跌至较为合理的水平。
目前大马股市的本益比，在17倍左右，跟过去大牛市时的26倍，仍有一段距离。
有一些股票，看起来相当有吸引力。
股息收入比成长重要
投资者可以根据基本面，如目前的本益比（PER），周息率（D/Y），成长潜能等，作选择性的购买。
你必须根据你个人的情况作出决定，不必去跟别人。例如对我这个退休人士来说，股息收入比成长重要，所以我选择买进一些高股息而又有稳健成长的蓝筹股。
买进以后，只要公司的业绩持续成长，就不脱售。
有一些我心仪的好股，因股价窜升得太快，不敢买进，常感惋惜。
此次暴跌，为我提供了一个买进的机会，实为快事。
November 5th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
您好，一直在看你的文章，
受益颇多。
最近中国石油上市
http://share.jrj.com.cn/cominfo/ggdetail_2007-11-02_601857_545397_stock.htm
有没有兴趣研究一下
它的EPS 和 PE
November 5th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
中国石油A股上市首日的表现近乎一场闹剧。任何一个有理性的人都不会去以这样高的价格买入。按这个价格计算，中国石油的市值是埃克森·美孚的两倍、甚至高于俄罗斯这样一个大国的GDP，这是不可想象的。所以，再去分析中国石油已经毫无意义。中国石油的合理股价怎么算都不会超过25元，即使考虑中国大陆巨大的资金和买入能力。实际上，巴菲特以平均12.5港元的价格卖完其H股，这个价格就应该是其估值的顶点。
November 5th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
楼上的说得太有道理了。同意。
November 6th, 2007 at 12:02 am
好久没来哦哦这里了.得补课了/
November 6th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
哦哦在此谢谢大家的分享，如此看来，中国的股市真的太热了。
November 8th, 2007 at 10:24 am
呵呵，来这里的中国同胞真多，感谢oo收集了这么多通俗易懂的学习资料。
中石油回A不知套住了多少散户，比年初中国人寿更过分。oo，这么跟你说吧，中国两次大牛市，98-2001，05年后期－今，崩溃边缘的PE都在60以上，群众疯狂抢购新股，中国石油香港价格为18港币左右，而大陆上市首日就炒到最高48人民币。近年中国股市，楼市狂涨数倍，通货膨胀压力日益增大，我不知道离崩溃还有多远。
看了所有文章，我想多了解一下马来西亚股市的历史，特别是93年大牛市和97年金融风暴，因为都是发展中国家，同为亚洲人，社会和人性方面肯定有相同之处，另外马来西亚现在股市怎么样了，希望oo能介绍一下，谢谢^_*。
November 8th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
今天股市果然暴跌。但就我个人感觉而言，这次中国A股还没有到崩溃的时候。目前股市价格过高基本上都是因为几家特大型公司的股价偏高所致，比如中国石油、中国石化、中国人寿、中国神华等等，但是仍然有很多小型成长股处于合理位置。最近6个月以来，不少这类股票下跌了30%-50%，早已回到30倍市盈率以内，而很多公司的利润增长率预估可以达到50%以上，而且很容易找到一些可能在最近数年都保持100%增长率的股票。比如，最近中国各大银行经常出现排长队的现象，其原因就是银行业自动化程度低，ATM机数量太少。鉴于经常出现排队现象造成银行客户极度不满，银行开始大批量采购ATM机以解决此问题。这样看来，生产ATM机的企业就会有大生意，而且可能连续数年都这样。所以，我看上了广电运通(002152.SZ)，这家企业就生产ATM设备，而且因为其价格低使得订单大增，第三季已经预计全年利润增长110%-140%。我估计，明年其利润也将增长100%左右，按07年底的预期业绩算，其PE为60倍，虽然较高，但仍处于合理范围。
不仅这个股票是这样，还有太多这样具有特色的小型股票值得大家注意和挑选。所以我认为，即使大型股票回调，是的股指出现调整，但整个市场中仍然会有不错的股票值得买入并持有。机会还是很多的，关键在于发掘。就好像以前的熊市，虽然多数股票下跌，但是仍然有苏宁电器(002024.SZ)这样连续3年每年利润增长100%的股票，给投资者带来几十倍的收益。所以，我个人觉得，现在应该精选股票，找到那些年年增长100%的股票，好在中国经济强劲，这类股票绝对不会少。
November 8th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
to shiyutang, you are really brilliant in investing.
But, i have to remind you, high risk, high return.
sometime, when the market is too hot, remind yourself about using safety margin to buy share, this will help you to prevent loss when market downturn.
If market still bulling and uptrend, the margin can help you gain more. that is just my personal little experience. Growthing rate higher than PE does not guarantee higher return and bottom line of price. hope you notice it. good luck!
November 8th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
to sebastian,
after 1997, all the young people no longer invest in share market, coz the bad impression from their elder relatives or friends.
If you want to look at the history and try to figure out the trend, i think “M type society” is suitable for you. Just buy robert kiyosaki books or search in google, you will get a lots of info about “M type society”.
One of the reason, young people in malaysia doesnot afford for investment is M type society. The middle class is falling. After this year, this problem will become more serious, as the oil palm and crude oils increase too much.
So, i believe after 10 years, KLSE will come back with 95 bulling time and burst gain. Since the young generation facing too huge stress in earning income. And when they have no choice, they will all the time looking for fast income and easy money. Share market is good choice. This will bring bull back, but it is not healthy market. I believe the market will down turn one more time as M type society is forming. China probably will take another 2o years to see M type, since middle class just start to form. I think politics will be more risk to china market.
Good luck!
November 8th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
我觉得，有一个因素是不会改变，那就是中国经济的增长。
所以主要还是考虑哪些公司能够获利最多。需求是最需要考虑的因素。哪些行业有巨大的需求？而且这个行业公司数量有限、门槛很高？
先找出这样的公司，然后看看股价，哪些股价合理？
然后就可以买入并持有了。
当然，中小企业的存活率不会很高，所以当然风险很大。但是某些极具特色的公司是值得买的。
November 10th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
哦哦觉得，一方面，中国的经纪的确进步得很快，不信？看看5年前的北京和今天的北京，根本就是两个不同的城市！
另外一方面，中国的股市从05到07年也起飞得很厉害。
所以，套用KLSE.8K前辈说过类似的话：也许中国的股市会崩溃，但是中国辛辛苦苦建立起来的建筑物，设施，工厂，还有几乎全世界你都可以找到“Made In China”的东西，是不会改变的。
那些都是实实在在的东西，所以哦哦不太担心股市的崩溃，因为哦哦看到的是中国的经济成长。
哦哦也相信，中国政府辛辛苦苦建立起来的中国经济，不会因为一次的股市崩溃而瓦解。
所以，哦哦今天买入大众银行的PB China Pacific Equity Fund，透过基金投资在中国股市！
谢谢。
November 10th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
中国股市的确需要调整。就目前情况看，多数股票价格都偏高，只有少数股价合理。以基金方式投资还是直接买中国股票投资，还很难说。因为基金普遍喜欢买入那些大象型的股票，而这些股票经历了梦幻般的6个月飙升，价格已经偏高了；相反很多小企业股票则跌了6个月，而这些公司有一些的主营业务极具特色，很值得一看。
对于海外人士要投资中国，似乎渠道不多，除了香港、大陆B股能买之外，大陆A股市场是没有开放的。而A股却是中国股市的主战场所在。从股价上看，A股最高，港股其次，B股最低，但这与成交的活跃性有关。当然，单就纯粹的投资来说，价格低的B股显然要安全多了，长期持有更合适一些。
November 10th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
i agree with shiyu tang, 基金普遍喜欢买入那些大象型的股票, 价格已经偏高了.oo, peter lynx did tell the bad of mutual funds. If you not really agree with them, try to look at what robert kiyosaki said about mutual fund. Warrent buffet and phil Town (author of “rule one”) also make same comment about mutual fund.
Of coz, investing is the choice of everybody. just hope oo take my opinion as a friend advise. maybe you got attracted by china development, but i think invest through mutual fund is NOT a brillian way. For the investment that we cannot control , we better do not take this chance ( maybe is a bad risk). Warren buffet never invest in those company that he donot know or can’t control.
about china, i have different opinion. Our world has change after “world become flat”. The speed of changes is never like we expect or thought. British can rule the world for more than 200 years, USA only can rule the world for around 1 century. I think the trend is china will rule the world , but in shorter period, then maybe take over by India, Russia or those country that have petroleum.
When we look at china, i think sometime, our chinese too proud of it and put our subjective view to gain some hope on it. This is irrational. Invest in china is a good choice, but must be very cautious and choosing a right company. Not just keep yourself in the trend. For the investment that you never can drive, control and manage, all the time, this investment is very risky. That is i try to point to others.
Hopefully , my opinions will not insult anybody. I also chinese and also proud of china achievements today.
November 10th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Well, it’s not the epoch of only one country ruling the world, but we can safely imply that China is and will be one of the most countries in the world. So the mood of optimism to China’s development is reasonable.
Investing China will be a long-time subject. But the question is whether it is a good chance now? And in which we should invest?
I think that investing in mutual funds is a good way all over the world except China. That’s because mutual funds of inversting in China are lack of features. I can hardly find a mutual fund that focuses on small and growing stocks or big and stable stocks. Now I think that growing stocks have more chance but I cannot find a fund of investing in these special stocks.
So the result is I have to choose and buy stocks myself.
There are a useful site:
http://www.cninfo.com.cn/ You can download all season and annual reports of listed company here. The data may help you when choosing stocks.
November 11th, 2007 at 2:07 am
to those china friends, that is the current politic challenge that we are having. The election and many sector are dominant by single party and unfair to many people. You may take this as a case study how the political issues will affect the economic activity in malaysia. just want to share with you.
please visit
http://elizabethwong.wordpress.com/2007/11/10/rakyat-pantang-dicabar/
冷眼 also there. i copy his reply from others wbsite.
黄衫军
张贴者 冷眼 @ 1686 on 十一月 11, 2007 12:25 上午
No: 56988
评价：
很高兴看到黄衫军游行较成功地举行！
有一个遗憾：我不幸成为被挡在Jln TAR 一带的那支黄衫军之一员，无法出现在游行队伍中！当时的情况就是群龙无首，一盘散沙。希望主办当局在总结检讨时，能注意一下组织与应变等方面，下回加以改善。
有一点分享：搭乘电动火车下吉隆坡时，反人民集团为了破坏黄衫军集会，竟然连其他搭客（包括游客）的方便也不顾，三番四次阻延火车前进。权力的傲慢，可见一斑！
November 11th, 2007 at 9:28 am
谢谢Shiyu Tang和tan81的提醒和分享。
首先，在马来西亚的小市民，如果想要投资中国的股市，最简单和最直接的方法就是通过基金。
哦哦决定投资在中国股市，主要是想要分享部分中国经济成长的成果。
哦哦承认中国现在的股市偏高，也担心现在买入会不会是最差的时机？
但是没有人可以估计这个牛市可以走到多远？那么什么时候才是最好的时机？也没有人知道。
就算熊市来了，以中国的经济成长和全球都依赖中国的出产品，哦哦相信下一个牛市很快就会再来。
所以，现在哦哦有一个机会投资于中国股市，哦哦就不想错过，哦哦怕以后会后悔。
当然，如果中国股市崩溃，哦哦也可能会后悔，但是绝对不会比错过中国经济列车更后悔。
还有一个哦哦不想错过的经济列车，就是中东国家，可惜，在马来西亚买不到投资于这些国家的基金。
最后，哦哦只用少于5%的资金投资于中国股市的基金，所以哦哦还是将大部分资金掌握在自己手中，投资在马来西亚股市。
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tan81，关于马来西亚的政资，哦哦觉得一党独大不会是什么问题，看看新加坡和中国，虽然一党独大，但是他们对公民平等。
而马来西亚，公民还可以再分等级：马来人是一等公民，有特别优惠（买屋子有7%优惠，儿女几乎都可以进到本地大学，上市公司一定要有30%股权在马来人手中）；华人和印度人是二等公民。
谢谢。
November 11th, 2007 at 10:57 am
thanks to shiyu tang, it is very helpful. i already bookmark it. you may type chinese, i can read chinese. anyway, thanks for your reply in english.
there is a rule called 80-20 or 90-10. When some method that is widely been agree by most of the people, there is higher risk for that common way. People never can earn big money by using 80% of those commonly used method. Maybe shiyu does not know about the mutual funds market in malaysia or china still lack of mutual funds. Here, many mutual funds encourage people to invest and getting retired by this “safe” investing way. Actually, this is worst way to invest, if you refer to Phil Town, Robert kiyosaki and Donald Trumph. Peter Lynx also did clarified why investing personal and in differ stock may beat Wall Street.
Many people think invest in mutual funds, is a low risk investment. The fact is just opposite. About fundamental investment, there is always some core rule. Knowing whats are the company that you invest in, and buying at a bargain price. In my post, i did agree that china will grow and invest in china is a good choice. Just never apply those investment that you cannot control and letting the pedal away, like unit trust. For my opinion, Learning how to invest by yourself, finding your way of investment, doing financial control and discover your own interested companies or sectors are much more important than any others.
oo, this is not a question of combination, it is a doubt in your philosophy of investment. What you agree with and what you against with. Hope you will not angry at me for these posts.
一党独大不会是什么问题 only will be true when 他们对公民平等. 而马来西亚，公民还可以再分等级, 华人和印度人是二等公民。this already point out the problem. Investors never like a country that is not fair and not safe to invest in. Look at what did our police has done to the tourists on 10 november,07. This already spoilt our whole year effords for the torism year. “Unfair” is common now in Malaysia and this issue can corrupt our investments. The poeple not against the government, just showing they want justice and fair.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:11 am
That is the example of how the police terrify the tourist at Masjid Jamek without any warning, and soon Malaysia will be the spotlight at international again.
http://www.jeffooi.com/
oo, this will be the last post about BERSIH. i do not wish to disturb the blog here.
anybody who interested to update BERSIH news, may visit to my blog,
http://tan81.blogspot.com/
thanks and sorry to oo if any inconvinience caused.
November 11th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
tan81，哦哦不会因为这种事而生气，反而哦哦很欢迎不同的看法和意见。
哦哦绝对赞同Lynch和Buffett的投资方式，哦哦也赞同：如果自己肯花一些时间，选择自己投资绝对不会比投资基金差。
如果有得选择，哦哦也想亲自投资中国的股票，但是身在马来西亚，哦哦没有这个机会，所以唯有通过基金。
再来，哦哦目前只有时间研究马来西亚的股票，并没有足够的时间去研究中国的股市，所以把这个重任交给基金经理，也未尝不是一件坏事。
当然，哦哦也希望100%的资金都可以在自己的掌握中，但是哦哦更不想错过中国的经济列车，所以把小部分资金投入基金，哦哦觉得还好。
谈回中国经济。
看看大众银行，丰隆银行，他们都进军中国，难道他们不怕万一中国股市崩溃，会严重影响银行的生意吗？
哦哦不担心，股灾一定会来，但是生意还是照做，难道因为怕股灾的来临，而放弃扩大生意版图的机会？
谢谢。
November 11th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
tan81，政治讨论虽然于哦哦理财没有关系，但是身为马来西亚人，哦哦也不会反对在哦哦理财讨论马来西亚的政治。
小小声说：哦哦真希望下一届大选，多一些反对党获得国会议席，到时候反对的声音大一些，政府才不敢乱乱来！
谢谢。
November 11th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
海外投资人投资中国股票，可以开设香港股票账户、中国上海B股账户和深圳B股账户。很多国际大型券商可以开设这些账户的。我估计摩根大通、法国兴业、Merrill Lynch应该都可以，所以可以打电话咨询一下。
海外投资人可以主要的市场应该还是香港市场。中国上海和深圳的B股市场只能起辅助作用。其中深圳B股中优质的股票较多，而上海B股则较少。香港和深圳B股市场用港币交易，上海B股市场用美元交易。
关于基金，我还是认为这些产品特色不足，多数就是买入中国移动、中国石油、建设银行、中国石化、中国电信等一些大象型的股票，稳定性好，但成长空间有限。我还是觉得成长股更好些。
中国国内到是有一些不错的专门投资成长股的基金，比如华夏成长（华夏基金网址：http://www.chinaamc.com/）、易方达策略成长（易方达基金网址：http://www.efunds.com.cn/）、广发小盘（广发基金网址：http://www.gffunds.com.cn/）等等。可惜海外投资人不能买。因为法律规定，只限中国籍居民投资。
November 12th, 2007 at 12:12 am
shiyu tang, really appreciate your details. I will try to work out the opportunity to invest in China.
哦哦, have to say thank you. Very appreciate for working out such a nice blog. When the 1st time, i got attracted by its content. Something that i need it urgently. After spending some time here, it is your personalities that attracted me. You are very kind and open for comment. really appreciate it.
Hope our sharing can make us grow rich.
I am writting some articles to help new comers or beginners. Hope you view them in my blog and give me comment. thanks.
p/s: finally, i think i know your gentle. haha…. :p
November 12th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
实际上，B股市场中最有价值的股票只有万科B(200002.SZ)和中集B(200039.SZ)。
万科是中国公认最优秀的房地产企业，而中集(CIMC)则是全球市场占有率第一的集装箱生产企业。
中集的成长过程是中国企业成长的一个缩影。1994年该公司上市时，其全球市场占有率只有2%左右，股价仅为7.80港币；13年之后，该公司已经成为全球集装箱行业的第一，市场占有率近70%，其股价也扶摇而上，经历多次分红、拆股，复权后计算，股价已达246港元。如果将每年的红利继续买股票，其收益将更可观。
所以，要买就要买像中集这样的股票，享受中国经济快速发展的成果。
November 12th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
tan81，不用客气，大家都是互相学习，人是需要看多一些，听多一些，经历多一些，才会有进步的。
是的，有时间哦哦会到你的网站去看看，哦哦还想要谢谢你，常常来哦哦理财，而且还帮忙哦哦回答问题，哈哈。
Shiyu Tang，哦哦也要谢谢你和大家分享你的分析和意见，谢谢。
November 13th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
也希望oo和tan81能和那些大的券商联系一下，弄清楚能不能开香港和大陆B股账户、怎样办理，然后在网上写一下，这样可以给海外华人提供一些经验供参考。有很多海外的华人想投资中国股市，但却苦于不知道如何办理。
November 13th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
To shiyu tang, I will try my best to invest in China as soon as possible. Currently, still shortage of cash flow. if i do so, must share my experience here.
Need your advise in the future.
To OO, you are looking for chances to invest in China. Actually, this can be done by malaysia companies that expand to china. In my hand, vitrox and AIM are having business in China. But, their china revenue still low.
Currently, me and Jeff are doing research on MFCB. Mega First is having a 60% owned power plant at Shaoxing. this Power Plant contribute their 80 to 90% profit to the group. So, they consider as pure china biz. They have upgrade their power plant 3 times within 5 years. please visit Jeff and my others posts. I think this is a good opportunity, and we can lower the risk as we can watch MFCB here.
good luck!.
November 14th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
最近中国股市也跟着周边股市暴跌，还跌出不少便宜股票了。就说上面提到的中集B(200039.SZ)吧。11月13日的收盘价为13.30港元，PE才13.3倍，ROE为14.23%（今年前三季度的值），每股净资产5.40元人民币（大概5.62港元）。即使作为一个价值股，这样的数字也算不错了。
June 26th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
朋友,中国股市现在是买入机会.